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Croatian oil imports to rise
Croatian Times
The latest Croatia Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 1.86 per cent of Central and Eastern European (CEE) oil demand by 2013.
The website Companiesandmarkets.com reported the news today (Weds), adding Croatia would contribute very little to the supply of oil in CEE.
Croatia’s GDP is forecast to decrease by 5.1 per cent in 2009, compared to 2008 growth of 2.4 per cent.
Consumption of oil is set to grow more slowly than the underlying economy, increasing by less than 1.5 per cent annually over the forecast period and reaching an estimated 105,000 barrels a day (b/d) by 2013. Imports are set to rise from an estimated 85,000 b/d in 2008 to no more than 94,000 b/d by the end of the forecast period.
Partly-privatised state oil group INA is attempting to raise local production in partnership with major shareholder Hungarian MOL, but Companiesandmarkets.com expects a steady decline in crude production, from an estimated 2008 level of 16,000 b/d to no more than 11,000 b/d by 2013.
Between 2008 and 2018, Companiesandmarkets.com forecasts an increase in Croatian oil consumption of 17.3 per cent, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 85,000 b/d to 105,000 b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas production is expected to have peaked at around 4.0 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2008 before slipping to 2.6 bcm by 2018. Dependence on imports will increase to 5.0 bcm during the period.
Croatia shares 12th and last place with Turkmenistan in the updated Upstream Business Environment ratings. Its minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress and reasonable country risk factors.
There is limited long-term scope for Croatia to pull away from its low-scoring rival, with Turkmenistan much more likely to leave Croatia behind.
Oil and gas demand in Croatia are among the lowest in the region, as is the oil-demand growth outlook. Population, nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and growth in GDP per capita are also low-scoring areas for the country.
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